Oil Market Weekly Report | Week 46, 2026
Published by HiLo Analytics | 13 November 2026 | hiloanalytics.com
Global oil markets this week were shaped by widespread speculative liquidation, a rebound in Chinese crude imports, a sharp unwind of the geopolitical risk premium in refinery margins, and US refiners running harder than last year. Here are the five key crude oil and refined products developments traders and analysts need to know.
1. Commodity Spec Length Liquidates Into the Mid-Terms as Wider Selling Looms
⚡ Widespread liquidation hit commodity net spec length in the run up to the mid-terms, with further selling expected in next week’s data. Ags was hit hardest, but crude and products also saw consistent selling. Last week’s selloff was the second worst of the year. (Source: ICE and CME)
2. China’s Crude Imports Rebound to Nearly 10MMBD in October as Lower Prices and Easing Freight Support Q4 Buying
⚡ Chinese crude imports rebounded to almost 10MMBD in October, the highest level since March and up 1MMBD m/m, though still 2.5MMBD below YTD highs. With flat price lower and tanker rates easing, a further pick up in Chinese crude imports is expected through the rest of Q4.
3. Refinery Margins Take a Hit as the Geopolitical Risk Premium Unwinds
⚡ Refinery margins have fallen sharply as the geopolitical risk premium unwinds across flat price, tanker rates and margins. European margins are down $8 over the last month, with Distillate and Gasoline cracks accounting for the bulk of the losses.
4. European Refinery Margins Find a Floor Above $20/bbl as Distillate Cracks Hold Firm
⚡ European refinery margins have dropped by over $8/bbl in the last month, but strong Distillate cracks are still holding them above $20/bbl. Forward margins remain above $10/bbl all the way out to Q3 2028, pointing to sustained refiner profitability well into the future.
5. US Refinery Runs Touch 17MMBD+ Again as Every PADD Runs Harder Year-on-Year
⚡ US refinery runs have touched 17MMBD+ once again, running 1MMBD higher y/y. Every PADD is running harder than last year as refiners delay maintenance to capture record high margins.
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