Oil Market Weekly Report | Week 45, 2026
Published by HiLo Analytics | 06 November 2026 | hiloanalytics.com
Global oil markets this week were shaped by a sharp reversal in the deferred Brent curve on Iran-US talks rumours, resilient Indian fuel demand, critically low US Distillate inventories, and a broad equity market selloff that oil largely shrugged off. Here are the five key crude oil and refined products developments traders and analysts need to know.
1. Cal-27 Brent Nears a Record $100/bbl as Hedging Incentives Strengthen
⚡ The Cal-27 curve continued to creep higher, led by crude in recent weeks. With Cal-27 Brent near a record $100/bbl and the Cal-27 Gasoil crack at $60/bbl, the economic incentives for refiners and producers to hedge 2027 at these levels are very strong.
2. Cal-27 Brent Suffers Its Sharpest Drop Since the Hormuz Conflict Began on Iran-US Talks Rumours
⚡ Just as Cal-27 Brent approached $100/bbl, a level tempting for producers to hedge, it fell by the most since the Hormuz conflict started. A broader commodity selloff followed rumours of positive Iran-US talks, abruptly reversing the recent climb in the deferred curve.
3. Indian Fuel Demand Holds Up Well in October Despite Higher Prices
⚡ Indian oil demand remained resilient in October even as prices climbed. Diesel demand rose 12.2% y/y and 5.8% on a YTD basis, while Gasoline demand grew 3.2% y/y and 6.6% YTD, showing road fuel consumption is holding firm.
4. US Distillate Stocks Plunge Below 100MB to the Lowest Level Since 2003
⚡ US Distillate stocks fell below 100MB, the lowest since 2003. On a days of cover basis, inventories now sit below 24 days, well under the 30-40 day range seen in recent years, leaving the US Diesel market with a thin buffer against any further supply disruption. (Source: EIA)
5. US Equities Suffer Sharpest One-Day Fall Since Liberation Day as Oil Holds Firm
⚡ US equity markets posted their sharpest one-day fall since last year’s Liberation Day selloff, though they still show healthy positive YTD gains. Oil markets proved resilient through the wider market carnage, having already sold off sharply the day before.
Stay ahead of the oil market. Visit hiloanalytics.com for daily crude oil intelligence, refinery margin analytics, and product crack data.
