Oil Market Weekly Report | Week 44, 2026
Published by HiLo Analytics | 30 October 2026 | hiloanalytics.com
Global oil markets this week were shaped by a rebound in Indian and Chinese refinery runs, tanker rate spikes across new routes and vessel classes, a cooling in European Gasoline cracks, and a broadening European energy crisis as TTF gas surged. Here are the five key crude oil and refined products developments traders and analysts need to know.
1. Combined Indian and Chinese Refinery Runs Hit a 6-Month High as India Offsets Chinese Weakness
⚡ Combined Indian and Chinese refinery runs reached a 6-month high as a surge in Indian throughput offset the y/y decline in Chinese runs. With Indian crude imports hitting a record high, refinery runs in India are expected to remain elevated.
2. Tanker Rate Spikes Spread Across Routes and Vessel Classes as Clean Tankers Run Short
⚡ Tanker rate spikes are now occurring on many new routes and vessel classes. A growing number of tankers are switching from clean to dirty to capture record crude freight rates, leaving low clean tanker availability and driving clean tanker rates sharply higher.
3. European Gasoline Cracks Slide to a 6-Month Low but Winter Spreads Hold Above Historic Highs
⚡ European Gasoline M1 cracks dipped below $20, hitting a 6-month low. Despite the correction, winter cracks remain above last year’s levels and well above 2022 peaks. Refineries continue running hard on record margins and delaying maintenance to maximise throughput.
4. European TTF Breaks €100/MWh as the Energy Crisis Moves Beyond Diesel
⚡ European TTF gas broke above €100/MWh for the first time since 2022, signalling that Europe’s energy crisis now extends well beyond Diesel. On a $/BOE basis, TTF trades $40 above Singapore 380 Fuel Oil, a sharp reversal from near parity just a few months ago.
5. Brazilian Crude Production Hits a Record 4.7MMBD as Asian Demand Absorbs Incremental Barrels
⚡ Brazilian crude production climbed to a record 4.7MMBD in September, up 0.8MMBD y/y. Higher prices continue to incentivise output growth, while rising demand from Asian refiners provides a ready home for the incremental barrels.
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