Oil Market Weekly Report | Week 43, 2026: China’s Diesel Exports Surge as Options Markets Hit Record Territory

Oil Market Weekly Report | Week 43, 2026
Published by HiLo Analytics | 22 October 2026 | hiloanalytics.com

Global oil markets this week were shaped by China’s long-awaited Diesel export surge, a rapid reshaping of Chinese crude import flows, underwhelming European refinery runs, and a historic shift toward options trading as geopolitical volatility intensifies. Here are the four key crude oil and refined products developments traders and analysts need to know.

1. China’s Diesel Exports Hit a 3-Year High as Refiners Finally Capitalise on Record Cracks
⚡ Chinese Diesel exports have surged to a 3-year high as refiners move to capture record crack spreads after months of puzzling inaction. The key question now is how much further exports can climb given Chinese refinery runs remain 1.3MMBD below pre-Hormuz conflict levels. (Source: China Customs)

2. China Crude Imports Reshape as Saudi and Sanctioned Barrel Flows Collapse
⚡ Chinese crude imports are down 2.4MMBD y/y with Saudi Arabia and Malaysia-labelled sanctioned barrels accounting for the bulk of the decline. Russia and Brazil are filling the void with record inflows while Iraq and Kuwait volumes have sharply rebounded from summer lows, highlighting a rapid reshaping of China’s crude import mix. (Source: China Customs)

3. European Refinery Runs Hit YTD Highs in August But Remain 2.3% Below Year-Ago Levels
⚡ European refinery runs picked up in August to YTD highs as refiners capitalised on surging cracks and record margins. Despite the improvement, runs remain 2.3% below y/y levels on a YTD basis with Germany and the UK accounting for the bulk of the underperformance, limiting Europe’s ability to address its deepening product supply deficit.

4. Options Volume Breaks 1MM Contracts for the First Time as Geopolitical Volatility Drives Traders Away From Futures
⚡ Options volume surged past 1MM contracts for the first time, dominated by put options as traders favour the asymmetric payoff of options over futures in a high volatility, geopolitically driven market. Record high open interest in options reflects a structural shift in how market participants are managing binary risk in the current environment.

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