Oil Market Weekly Report | Week 40, 2026: US Refinery Runs Stumble as Asian Recovery Gathers Pace
Oil Market Weekly Report — Week 40, 2026
Published by HiLo Analytics | 02 October 2026 | hiloanalytics.com
Global oil markets this week were shaped by a sharp drop in US refinery runs, a broadening Asian refinery recovery, record Gasoline speculative positioning, and continued LATAM crude production strength. Here are the four key crude oil and refined products developments traders and analysts need to know.
1. Gasoline Specs Hit Near Record Highs as Diesel Lags Despite Record Cracks
⚡ Gasoline spec length has diverged sharply from Brent and Gasoil to approach record highs. With a US Diesel export ban looming, Gasoline is emerging as the key second-order beneficiary, keeping net spec length elevated while Diesel specs remain far off their own record highs. (Source: ICE and CME)
2. Asian Refinery Runs Surge Back to March 2026 Levels as China Joins the Recovery
⚡ Combined refinery runs across Asia's four largest economies rebounded in August to March 2026 levels, narrowing the y/y decline to just 0.7MMBD. China remains the lone drag at -1MMBD y/y while India, Japan and South Korea all post y/y gains. A full y/y recovery looks increasingly likely in Q4 as record margins incentivize maximum throughput.
3. US Refinery Runs Drop 1.3MMBD From YTD Highs on Joliet Outages and Seasonal Pressure
⚡ US refinery runs have fallen sharply by 1.3MMBD over the last three weeks, with PADD2 accounting for 0.7MMBD of the decline following outages at the Joliet refinery. With maintenance season approaching and Diesel export ban talks ongoing, US refinery run rates remain increasingly fragile.
4. LATAM Crude Production Sustains 1MMBD+ Year-on-Year Growth Across All Four Key Producers
⚡ Latin America's four key producing nations are collectively delivering over 1MMBD of y/y crude production growth, with all countries contributing to the expansion. LATAM market share continues to gain ground in refineries globally as the Hormuz conflict reshapes crude trade flows and supply preferences.
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Tags: oil market analysis, crude oil weekly report, Brent crude outlook, US refinery runs, LATAM crude production, Gasoline speculative positioning, oil market intelligence, OOTT, oil and gas, energy market update, Asian refinery runs, HiLo Analytics
